Predictive models of epidemics are too often wildly wrong

The COVID-19 Response Team led by Professor Neil Ferguson, has been a major influence on UK Government COVID-19 policies.

Imperial College model predictions have influenced UK government COVID-19 policies without sufficient challenge and peer review. This is surprising given past forecasting failures and the enormous costs of the policies in …

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Analysis from Cardiff, Nottingham and Oxford Universities finds "very little gain" in continuing total lockdown

An academic paper from 2020-04-15 models various scenarios to investigate time-dependent strategies of handling the epidemic taking into account the needs of the elderly and those with special medical conditions. Main findings include:

Very little gain, in terms of the projected hospital bed occupancy and expected numbers of death,of …

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BBC: Informing or scaring?

Here is a comparison of news headlines from the past week in 2020 and the headlines from a time in 2018 when mortality rates were peaking due to a bad flu season.

Make up your own mind. Do the headlines reflect the gravity of the situations in an equivalent way …

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