This page is a summary of the past week, tweets and other pieces of information that I think are interesting and perhaps useful to refer to in the future.
For the latest chart see the Dashboard
A great round-up of covid news can be found at lockdownsceptics.org
See also other "scrapbook" pages
How bad is Covid?
Official numbers indicate that mortality this year is better than it was in the equivalent weeks in 2018.
By 31DEC there have been 52 deaths in the healthy under 40's "with" covid in England. This compares with around 30-60 struck by lightning each year.
All cause mortality this winter is worse than average (about half of all winters will be)
In the latest ONS data we see c. 209 extra deaths per day over the avg 1650 (England & Wales)
The wholesale disruption of life, livelihoods and liberty cannot possibly be justified
Look at those excess deaths in London, a bad spring, a blip with the July heatwave and then just look at Nov-Dec
Why in the world are we turning out world upside down for this?
Latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data affected by holiday interruptions
Overall mortality dropped (usually does at this time - grey)
Deaths with c19 falling since 31DEC (green) close to avg respiratory deaths (red dotted)
Now is peak for seasonal virus but most indicators are broadly horizontal
Hospital occupancy this winter and 2017/2018 compared:
Many fewer beds now than there were. Despite this occupancy rates now are now relatively low
Christmas this year saw a normal dip in activity
2017/2018 occupancy is higher than 2020/2021 max capacity
UK has a wildly disproportionate share of Covid deaths. Are we really more than 10x as unhealthy / incompetent / unfortunate as other countries - or are the numbers wrong?
Does Government Policy Make Sense?
By the UK Government's own calculation, lockdowns clearly do more harm than good
People are realising lockdowns are ineffective against the virus but cause other harms (see tragic suicide story below).
In JUL Govt tried to quantify harm in "Quality Adjusted Life Years" (QALYs)
Blue is the harm done by c19 - the other colours are the worse collateral harms
Analysis by Economists:
"Evaluated as a whole, at a first glance, the lockdown policies of the Spring of 2020 therefore appear to be substantial long-run government failures."
Then lets do it again and again, stands to reason.
New Stanford study, looked closely at 10 countries: Lockdowns don't work
"While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs" (NPI = business closures and stay at home orders)
What might some of the unanticipated effects of lockdown be?
More unanticipated effects of lockdown
Is the government really trying to understand what is happening? Notice how closely the spring outbreak followed the SIR model undisturbed by lockdown
WAVE 1 followed the basic SIR Model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) undisturbed by interventions.
WAVE 2 is different. Govt should explain why this is and why they they think their interventions can be justified given the virus progresses regardless of the interventions?
We need to understand why the Chinese experience of covid is so different from our own
Mysteriously, flu has more or less disappeared this year, in the UK, the USA and many other countries
Also mysterious that covid respects arbitrary lines drawn on maps
In overall mortality, Sweden is doing better than most of its geographic neighbours
When I did this chart in July, Sweden was doing a little worse than Denmark. Now they are doing a little better.
Sweden consistently doing better than Scotland and Finland.
Sweden has received much unjustified criticism for deciding not to have only limited restrictions.
Chart by yr alltud
Do enough people know what a pseudo-epidemic is?
There are many examples of "pseudo-epidemics" in scientific literature. This when heightened concern leads to extra doctor visits and tests which leads to identification of more cases which leads to more anxiety and more tests in a vicious circle. Could the current covid outbreak, where covid deaths significantly outnumber excess deaths be in part least be pseudo-epidemic?
The Big Picture
Thread putting the c19 phenomena in context with a rare breadth and depth
Interesting take on the mentality that believes it can stop covid
Fear drives people to do crazy things
Again, what are we doing to children !!!
BMJ: Massive rise in Abusive Head Trauma to Babies - just one more side-effect of lockdown
London hospital sees 1493% increase in babies with Abusive Head Trauma (AHT) during one month of lockdown.
Pls factor this in when you urge politicians to impose more restrictions
Young people bear the least risk from Covid but will pay the most for our collective overreaction to the problem. Too few are sticking up for kids at this time.
Fear, Media and Control
@BBCNews this is not news but participation in a propaganda exercise
You are not informing but adding to overblown fears and misinformation
BBC consistently carries misleading headlines designed to create fear
BBC New's main headline "Covid-19: UK sees highest daily toll of 1,325 deaths (2021-01-09)"
This is by "date reported" and includes a backlog of previously unreported deaths.
The correct number "by date of occurence" is 630 (3JAN or 242 8JAN with reporting lag). The peak in April was 967 (All Govt numbers)
This is relentless, most people don't have a clue and are running around like headless chicken
adapnation.io show the true picture with the cases by report date in pale colours.
The media loves to obsess over "case" numbers
Scaring people half to death seems to have been part of the governments' plans in the UK and Germany
German SAGE: High numbers of infections are purposely reported because the numbers of deaths would ‘sound too trivial’ reported at Conservative Woman, The Covid panic was planned all along
I wonder what proportion of those who fully support mainstream views on interventions and vaccines also support the censorship that those views are protected by. Asking a question about a vaccine can now get you banned by twitter
Dr Piers Robinson reviews the film Seven for OffGuardian ...
... that looks at the fiasco concerning the scientific review of what actually happened on 9/ll and makes comparisons to Covid
The Police are doing their bit to maintain fear and do their best to erode ancient liberties.
Hyde Park corner world famous home of free speech, frequented by Marx, Lenin, George Orwell, Marcus Garvey and Winston Churchill
This police intervention chills my blood - watch the video if you want to feel disgusted and possibly frightened.
Two parents were attacked by police in their own home today in front of their horrified children who were left screaming at concern for their parents safety.
The trespass by police took place at a home in Scotland. In the footage which can be viewed below the mother pleads with the police to leave as she has not given them permission to enter their home. As the officer towers over her the mother becomes agitated and her husband stands in front of her to protect her. It as at this point that the children see what’s going on and plead with the officers to leave. But rather than leaving another officer enters the home without permission and both parents are wrestled to the ground and pinned down by the officers whilst the children are traumatised and screaming.
As reported by dailyexpose.co.uk
Lockdown sceptics, our appeals to reason and freedom have failed - we have so far, lost the argument. Emotion has trumped reason & scared people don't care about liberty. Its time to lick our wounds and figure out how to get emotional
Important article by Dr David McGrogan in Lockdownsceptics.org
US Health care workers more c19 vaccine "hesitant" than the general population. Hmm what do health care workers know about health?