Lockdown is likely to have major economic implications that in the future may harm healthcare due to lack of resources. This may eventually cause even more deaths and suffering than the COVID-19 pandemic will bring in the near term
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Sweden has adopted a relatively relaxed strategy, seemingly assuming that overreaction is more harmful than under-reaction.
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The government has now banned gatherings of more than 50 people, this excludes places like schools, restaurants and gyms which remain open.
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Swedish simulations used to guide “surge requirements” anticipate far fewer hospitalisations per 100,000 of the population than predicted in other countries, including the UK.
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The Public Health authorities are sceptical about the need for lock-down in most of the country, but discussions are now ongoing to enforce such an intervention in the capital area.
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There are several arguments supporting the current official Swedish strategy. These include the need to keep schools open in order to allow parents who work in key jobs in health care, transportation and food supply lines to remain at work. Despite other infectious diseases spreading rapidly among children, COVID-19 complications are relatively rare in children
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A long-term lockdown is also likely to have major economic implications that in the future may harm healthcare due to lack of resources. This may eventually cause even more deaths and suffering than the COVID-19 pandemic will bring in the near term.
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Learning the lessons from their experience of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu, Swedish authorities are optimistic that it can achieve herd immunity sooner rather than later. Compared with the Spanish flu, COVID-19 is less severe, with many infected people believed to be asymptomatic. While this contributes to a more rapid spread, and means that herd immunity may be quickly achieved in countries that do not have intensive suppression strategies.
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Herd immunity may also lower the risk of further waves of the epidemic. The success or failure of Sweden’s relatively relaxed initial approach is crucial to learning the lessons of COVID-19. This would take into account not just the loss of lives from the pandemic, but also longer term social and economic negative consequences and the deaths they may cause.