An academic paper from 2020-04-15 models various scenarios to investigate time-dependent strategies of handling the epidemic taking into account the needs of the elderly and those with special medical conditions. Main findings include:
Very little gain, in terms of the projected hospital bed occupancy and expected numbers of death,of continuing the lock-down beyond April 13, provided the isolation of older and vulnerable people continues and the public carries on some level of isolation in the next 2-3 months,
Isolation of the group of vulnerable people during the next 2-3 months should be one of the main priorities
The epidemic should almost completely finish in July, no global second wave should be expected,except areas where the first wave is almost absent.
Source: Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions, Anatoly Zhigljavsky, Roger Whitaker, Ivan Fesenko, Kobi Kremnizer, Jack Noonan