By 2020-04-10 in England and Wales, around 8,429 people have died "with" COVID-19. If 2020 follows the pattern of 2018, a bad year for respiratory disease, then in the same time period...
- around 33,630 people will have died from respiratory disease
- COVID-19 will be linked to around 4.5% of total deaths which number 187,720 data updated 2020-04-14
Note: Updated 2020-04-14 using data complete to 2020-04-10. Numbers will be lower than those given in daily government press releases as all figures here exclude Scotland and Northern Ireland. They also exclude estimated deaths between 2020-04-10 and the most recent release.
![[Click image to enlarge]](../images/InProportion2_Chart1.png){kind=link}
In the above chart BLUE shows the number of deaths from respiratory disease in 2018, ORANGE shows deaths from respiratory disease this year (it takes around eleven days before ONS data is published). RED are the deaths in the UK reported "with" COVID-19 ("with" not necessarily "because of").
At this scale, the deaths "with" COVID-19 look relatively few compared to the deaths from all causes and compared to the number of deaths that usually take place in NHS hospitals.
As of 3rd April, the total number of deaths so far this year is around 6% less than for the equivalent period in 2018
(164,444 vs 175,419).
The sum of COVID-19 and deaths from respiratory disease so far is 30,074 (where according to the ONS some deaths will be double counted) is less than the 31,659 deaths from respiratory disease for 2018 (where none are double counted)
In the following chart, Chart 2, the figures for deaths from any cause are removed so we can "zoom in" and better see COVID-19 in relation to 2019 deaths due to respiratory disease.
In Chart 3, the figures are shown as weekly totals, rather than cumulative totals. Week ending 2020-04-03 does show unusually high overall mortality; this data point can be compared with the worst week in 2018.
England (not Wales) is currently unique in Europe in there being a projected increase in mortality beyond earlier waves of respiratory disease. The question remains open as to whether the partially increased mortality is due to the coronavirus alone or also due to the sometimes drastic measures taken (e.g. isolation, stress, cancelled operations, etc.) and whether mortality will still be increased in the annual view [1].
In the following chart, downloaded from Euromomo on 2020-04-16 you can see overall mortality in a European context up until last week (up to 2019-04-10) - that is deaths from any cause, including COVID-19. Overall deaths in Europe are represented by the green line. Notice that Europe remains in a better position than it was at the worst of the 2016/17 flu season. This raises the question: why are we taking such unprecedented measures with quarantines and shutdowns when this was not necessary then?
[Click image to enlarge] ###Is the cure worse than the disease? To deal with the threat of COVID-19 the UK Government has ordered unprecedented shut-downs and quarantines, and many support this in the spirit of "better safe than sorry". However, this overlooks the fact that shutdowns and quarantines also kill. The economic, social and health costs will almost certainly include: * Earlier deaths for cancer sufferers due to diagnosis and treatment delays * Business failures leading to more business failures * Job losses leading to poor health, social problems and suicides * Fewer taxpayers available to fund an increasing need for social benefits * Reduced funding for the NHS and the rest of the public sector * Lost educational opportunities and disruption to exams and graduations * Inflation as Government "prints" and "borrows" more, while tax revenues fall * Pension values reduced by stock-market crashes * Reduced life expectancy for people moving deeper into poverty Or in the words of a former UK Supreme Court Judge:
"The real question is, is this serious enough to warrant putting most of our population into house imprisonment, wrecking our economy for an indefinite period, destroying businesses that honest and hard-working people have taken years to build up, saddling future generations with debt, depression, stress, heart attacks, suicides and unbelievable distress inflicted on millions of people who are not especially vulnerable, and will suffer only mild symptoms or none at all?"
**[Notes on the data](pages/notes_on_the_data.html)** **[Costs](category/costs.html)** for more on the costs of the quarantines and shutdowns. **[Updates](category/updates.html)** for general updates. ## Twitter **[#InProportion2](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23InProportion2)** for comments and questions“All I maintain is that on this earth there are pestilences and there are victims, and it's up to us, so far as possible, not to join forces with the pestilences.”
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