- Home page archived: the home page content as of 2020-06-02
Home page archived: the home page content as of 2020-05-20
Data on past pandemics:
Home page archived: the home page content as of 2020-05-13
Home page archived: the home page content as of 2020-05-06
Home page archived: the home page content as of 2020-04-29
Home page redesigned. For reference, here is the home page content as of 2020-04-19
Calculation of non-Covid excess deaths
Data back to 1993 taken from:
Good analysis of the latest figures: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
ONS stats to 3APR taken from https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/referencetablesweek14202013042020165839.xlsx
Cumulative COVID-19 deaths from 4APR to 10APR takend from Public Health England
OLD NO LONGER CURRENT NOTES
Previous versions of charts had an error overstating the number of COVID-19 Deaths.
ONS Cumulative totals were mistaken for daily totals. This means there are far fewer COVID-19 Deaths than were previously shown. Now corrected.
Thanks to @Tattius1 for pointing out the error.
Use of NHS figures:
Previously COVID-19 death tallys were taken from Public Health England, but these numbers are considerably lower than the numbers published later by ONS which are published later but which are more comprehensive
Data to 27 March taken from ONS sheet "publishedweek132020-1.xlsx"
NHS data produces more up to date numbers but these tend to be lower due to delays in collecting data and ommitting e.g. deaths that occurred out side of hospital etc.
According to NHS data COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-7-April-2020-1.xlsx 3959 deaths have occurred with COVID-19 from 28 to 6 Apr.
28-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 31-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 02-Apr-20 03-Apr-20 04-Apr-20 05-Apr-20 06-Apr-20 314 556 534 271 495 463 440 464 341 81
From 02-Apr-20 to 6-Apr-20 there have been average 356 COVID-19 deaths per day, so for 07-Apr-20 to 10-Apr-20 it is assumed this average continues, 4 x 356 = 1424
Data to 27MAR from ONS. Data from 28MAR to 6APR from NHS. Data from 7APR to 10APR is linear extrapolation or28MAR to 6APR data.
Comparison data is now taken from 2018 rather than the five year average. This is to make the point that even if mortality rates are above average, they may still be within recently experienced norms.
Question from Twitter
"Sorry to have to ask again but I've sent your charts & data to several groups and have had many enquiries asking for clarification. None of us can work out where the 4,116 comes from. We would really appreciate some clarity please. Many thanks."
Spreadsheet is called "publishedweek132020-1.xlsx",
TOTAL DEATHS - tab "Weekly figures 2020", Row 9. "Total deaths, all ages", Col "Week ended" 27-Mar-20 value is 11,141 (A)
COVID DEATHS - Tab "Covid-19 - E&W comparisons", Col E "ONS deaths by actual date of death – registered by 1st April", sum rows 22 to 28 inclusive to get 7025 (B) the total Covid deaths for the week ending 27/03/2020
TOTAL DEATHS EXCLUDING COVID-19 - To exclude Covid-19 deaths from the total, (A) - (B) = 4116
When the green and red bars are stacked in the chart, the overall height will represent the total deaths.